A ONE INSTITUTE
Mar 1, 2025
Today, I’m diving into an in-depth analysis of RD trends based on years of data to predict the Class of 2029 Regular Decision results.
Where Are We Now?
Right now, seniors are anxiously awaiting their decisions, while juniors are beginning to strategize for next year’s applications. Many students analyze past admissions trends to guide their application strategy. However, while recent data (from the past one or two years) is widely available, finding comprehensive, long-term trends is far more difficult.
That’s where I come in. Today, I’ll be laying out a six-year timeline of data for different schools, helping you understand patterns, and predicting how this year’s RD results might shape up.
To make the data easier to digest, I’ll break it down by school. When looking at the tables, keep these key points in mind:
Top Table → ED/EA Analysis
Bottom Table → RD Analysis
Blue Background → Standardized Testing Required
Pink Background → Test-Optional Policy
Understanding the Numbers
Top number = Total applicants
Bottom number = Accepted students (not enrolled students)
School-Specific Analysis
MIT
MIT is one of the most transparent schools when it comes to admissions data, making it an excellent case study for trend analysis.
Test-Optional Impact: When MIT moved to a test-optional policy for the Class of 2025, the number of applicants skyrocketed. However, since the class size remained the same, the acceptance rate plummeted.
Test Reinstatement: For the Class of 2027, MIT reinstated standardized testing requirements, leading to a decline in EA applications and a slight rise in acceptance rates.
RD Predictions: Given that EA acceptance numbers were higher than last year, I expect MIT to admit fewer students in RD. With around 16,000 applicants and a stable class size, I predict an RD acceptance rate of 3.6%.
Harvard
Harvard remained test-optional until this year. For the Class of 2029, they have reinstated the testing requirement.
Test-Optional Impact: When Harvard initially went test-optional, the number of applicants surged, and early acceptance rates were slashed in half (from 13.9% to 7.4%).
RD Predictions: With testing requirements back, I expect RD applications to decrease slightly. As a result, the RD acceptance rate might increase slightly to around 3.0%. This means students on the borderline may have a slightly better shot this year.
Early vs. RD Trends: Some news sources claim that Harvard is admitting more students in Early rounds. However, they seem to be deferring a large number of applicants, making RD a tough round nonetheless.
Stanford
Stanford does not publicly release detailed admissions data, so I will not be analyzing it here.
Yale
Yale’s early application trends reflect the broader impact of test-optional policies.
Test-Optional Effect: When Yale adopted test-optional policies, EA applications rose significantly. However, unlike other schools, Yale’s acceptance rate didn’t plummet dramatically, keeping EA applications consistently high.
Test-Flexible Approach: For the Class of 2028, Yale reinstated testing but allowed for a more flexible submission policy. This led to a slight drop in applications, which in turn slightly boosted the early acceptance rate.
RD Predictions: With approximately 2,300 total spots and 700 filled in early rounds, I predict an RD acceptance rate of 3.6%—a small increase from last year.
Caltech
Caltech does not provide sufficient admissions data for a detailed analysis.
Duke
Brown vs. HYPSM Effect: Duke has benefited from the test-optional era, as many students who would typically apply to HYPSM opted for Duke instead.
Early Trends: Brown’s increase in early applicants set a record-low acceptance rate.
RD Predictions: With an estimated 48,000 applicants, Duke’s RD acceptance rate is projected to be 4.27%, similar to last year.
Johns Hopkins University
Test-Optional Impact: JHU will remain test-optional for this cycle but will require tests starting next year.
RD Predictions: Given the recent trends, I predict that JHU’s RD acceptance rate will drop below last year’s 4.5%.
Northwestern
Early Trends: Northwestern admitted a record number of students in ED this year.
RD Predictions: I estimate 47,000 applicants and an RD acceptance rate of 5.5%.
University of Pennsylvania
Test-Optional Ripple Effect: With Cornell and Brown reinstating testing, more applicants flocked to Penn, leading to a record-high application volume.
RD Predictions: Expect a historically low acceptance rate, making this one of Penn’s most competitive years.
Cornell
Test-Optional Reversal: Like Harvard, Cornell saw a surge in applications when it went test-optional, but the acceptance rate didn’t fall significantly.
RD Predictions: With 7,800 Early applicants and 1,750 admitted (22% acceptance rate), I expect RD acceptance to be 6.9%.
University of Chicago
UChicago does not release detailed admissions data.
Brown
Test-Optional Reversal: The reinstatement of testing led to a drop in Early applications, but the early acceptance rate rebounded slightly.
RD Predictions: With 36,200 applicants and 1,700 acceptances, I expect an RD acceptance rate of 4.6%.
Columbia
RD Predictions: No major changes expected; acceptance rates should remain similar to last year.
Dartmouth
Test Reinstatement with No Drop in Apps: Unlike other schools, Dartmouth’s applicant pool remained stable despite requiring tests again.
RD Predictions: I expect RD applications to drop slightly, leading to an estimated 5% RD acceptance rate.
Rice
Early Trends: Rice admitted a historically high number of students in ED 1 and ED 2.
RD Predictions: Expect 30,000 RD applicants and a 6.36% acceptance rate.
Notre Dame
RD Predictions: Similar to last year—RD remains a solid option.
Vanderbilt
RD Predictions: Applications will likely rise slightly, pushing the RD acceptance rate down marginally.
Class of 2029 Top 20 RD Summary (Excluding UC Schools)
Harvard/Yale → Slight RD acceptance rate increase but overall stable.
Duke → Similar to last year.
JHU → More competitive than last year.
Northwestern → RD acceptance rate slightly lower than last year.
Penn → Historically low RD acceptance rate expected.
Cornell/Brown → Stronger chances for high-scoring applicants.
UChicago/Columbia → Similar to last year.
Dartmouth → Lower RD applicant pool = slightly better odds.
Rice → Similar to last year.
Notre Dame → RD remains a strong option.
Vanderbilt → Similar to last year.
I hope this data helps you strategize for your applications!
For further inquiries, feel free to contact us at A-One Institute.
Thank you!