2024 AP Physics 1 Exam Prediction

Today, I will share predictions for the upcoming AP Physics 1 exam questions based on past online AP Physics exams. 

The 2024 AP Physics exam will be the last exam before the format changes next year. As this will be the final test with the current format, let’s dive into potential topics and questions.

AP Physics is structured uniquely into four main courses, which seems to carry an implicit expectation from the College Board: If you’re a STEM student, isn’t at least one of these worth taking? 

The AP Physics 1 exam is a three-hour test, consisting of 50 multiple-choice questions (MCQs) and 5 free-response questions (FRQs). 

Next year’s format will change to 40 MCQs and 4 FRQs. Although the number of questions is decreasing, the time allotted remains the same, suggesting a slight increase in question difficulty. 

In AP Physics C, the exam is currently divided into Mechanics and Electricity & Magnetism, with each section lasting 1.5 hours. Starting in 2025, AP Physics C will expand to a three-hour exam with more questions, likely increasing its difficulty level as well. 

Let’s focus on predicting the 2024 exam questions. 

The AP Physics 1 exam currently covers Units 1 through 7. While Units 8, 9, and 10 were removed from the scope during the pandemic, they will be reintroduced next year. 

As seen in the image above, the AP Physics 1 scoring distribution shows how challenging it is to achieve a top score. AP Physics 1 consistently ranks among the top three AP subjects in difficulty for scoring a 5. Although the percentage of students scoring a 5 increased slightly in 2023 to 8.8%, it remains lower than that of other challenging AP subjects such as AP Lang, AP Lit, and APUSH. 

A student achieving a 5 in AP Physics 1 demonstrates substantial study efforts, as it’s a rare accomplishment. 

The scoring for AP Physics 1 allocates 40 points for the MCQ section, equating to 0.8 points per question, and 40 points for the FRQ section, with 5 questions (each question includes multiple subparts, though they are formally categorized as 5 questions). This means that the MCQ and FRQ sections contribute equally to the final score, highlighting the importance of performing well on the FRQ section. 

Although the score cutoffs vary by test, I’ll provide a strategy for securing a minimum score that can result in a 5. 

Since it may be difficult to excel in the FRQ section, aim to answer at least 40 out of the 50 MCQ questions correctly. Additionally, in the FRQ section, target 27 points out of 45. 

Following this approach will yield approximately 55.976 points, making it highly likely to score a 5. 

Due to the difficulty level of AP Physics 1, achieving a 5 isn’t easy; however, 95% of our dedicated students have successfully scored a 5, proving that it’s achievable.

Each AP Physics 1 unit has a set portion of questions allocated, so it’s beneficial to review these distributions when studying. While it’s generally feasible to answer 40 out of 50 MCQs correctly with proper preparation, inadequate preparation in the FRQ section can result in extremely low scores. Thus, it’s essential to focus on FRQ prep. 

Today’s predictions are focused solely on the FRQ section. 

In 2024, as depicted in the image, the FRQs will likely follow the same structure, with questions 1, 4, and 5 worth 7 points each, and questions 2 and 3 worth 12 points each. Predicting questions 2 and 3 is crucial, as answering them correctly would yield 24 points, leaving only 3 points to meet the minimum target of 27 for a score of 5. Scoring well on just one of the remaining questions could meet the goal. 

Analyzing the exam patterns since 2015, excluding the 2020 COVID year, reveals trends in question types and patterns. Given that the current pattern started in 2015 and 2024 will be its final year, we will need to gather data for the new format next year. 

Strategically scoring well in the FRQ section hinges on predicting questions 2 and 3. These are marked with red circles in the image; please focus on these units. 

While exceptions occur occasionally, we’ve noticed that units tested one year tend not to appear the following year. Units with more circles are typically covered more broadly across multiple topics. 

The pattern noticeably shifted in 2023. Examining the 2023 score distribution, where 27.1% scored 4 or higher, suggests the questions were easier that year. 

Units 1 and 2 were usually tested as embedded concepts within other questions rather than standalone topics, but in 2023, they were tested individually in questions 2 and 3. This likely intentional move towards easier units resulted in higher scores.

In 2024, it’s less likely that Units 1-3 will appear as standalone topics in questions 2 and 3, and the consecutive appearance of Unit 3 in 2022 and 2023 suggests it’s unlikely to reappear in 2024. Unit 4’s energy concepts, however, are significant and could likely appear in combination with other topics. 

Unit 5, which wasn’t tested in the FRQ section in 2023, is a key unit for the College Board, so I predict a high probability it will appear in questions 2 or 3 in 2024. 

If time is limited, focusing on Unit 5, especially Momentum, can help secure a few extra points in the FRQ section. 

I wish everyone success on the final 2024 AP Physics 1 exam with the current format. 

Today, we discussed predictions for the AP Physics 1 exam. 

If you have any questions about AP classes or exams, feel free to contact us at A-One Institute, where we’ll be happy to help. 

Thank you.